COST OF CONSERVATIVE ELECTION PROMISES AS OF AUGUST 26

The Conservatives have announced few new initiatives since the election campaign started.  The reason is that there platform was already included in the April budget. Most importantly, this included the enhanced UCCB and income splitting for families with children 18 years of age and younger.

Stephen Harper announced two new initiatives in the first two days of the 2015 election campaign.

 The two initiatives – changes to the Apprenticeship Job Creation Tax Credit and a permanent Home Renovation Tax Credit - were aimed at the business sector and expected to spur economic growth. The Home Renovation Tax Credit will only come into effect in the middle of the next mandate (assuming the Conservatives are re-elected) and only if the fiscal situation can afford it (which seems highly unlikely). 

Since then the Conservatives have made a number of small policy announcements the two most expensive being the increase in the Canadian armed forces reserves ($54 million annually) and another special tax benefit, this time to help members of service clubs ($30 million annually)

 Panel 1 of the attached table shows that the total cost of all these initiatives would be very small if not trivial rising to only $1.6 billion by 2019-20. Panel 2 shows that the Conservatives, not surprisingly, have proposed no new revenue measures.

Like the NDP the Conservatives are committed to a balanced budget and indeed introduced balanced budget legislation in the last budget. Like the NDP they also would have to confront a worsened economic and fiscal outlook after the election. Whether they would confront it in a realistic manner remains to be seen.

 

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

 

($ millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Uses of Funds

 

 

 

 

 

    Apprenticeship Job Creation

15

60

60

60

60

    Home Renovation Tax Credit

 

 

375

1,500

1,500

    Anti-drug Policy

 

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

    Cdn Armed Forces Reserves

 

54

55

56

63.4

    Office of Religious Freedom

 

3

3

3

 

    BC Salmon habitat

 

5

5

5

 

    Taxability deductibility for fees

 

30

30

30

30

    Adoption Expenses Tax Credit

 

1

1

1

 

    Total Uses of Funds

15

157.5

533.5

1,659.5

1,658.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Sources of Funds

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Net Impact

-15

-157.5

-533.5

-1,659.5

-1,658.9

 

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