September 2015

Fiscal Monitor for April – July 2015: Surplus of $5.2billion: What is Going On

 

 

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CONSERVATIVE PLATFORM COSTS AS OF SEPTEMBER 28

None of the Parties are provideing costs for 2015-16.

 

Conservative Party “Boutique” Election Promises

 

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

 

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NDP PLATFORM COSTS SEPTEMBER 28

 

 

None of the Parties are providing cost estimates for 2015-16

 

New Democratic Party Election Promises

 

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

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LIBERAL PLATFORM COSTS SEPTEMBER 28

None of the Parties are providing cost estimares for 2015-16

 

Liberal Party Election Promises

 

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

 

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DO ANY OF THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE A CREDIBLE FISCAL STRATEGY

What is a credible fiscal strategy? As we evaluate parties' platforms in the lead-up to the federal election, here are four essential criteria to bear in mind.

First, a credible strategy must be realistic. That is, it must be based on sound analysis and a careful and balanced view of economic and fiscal prospects, challenges, and risks.  

 

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COST OF LIBERAL PROMISES AS OF SEPTEMBER 1

The Table below provides cost estimates for most of the Liberal election promises as of September 1. In some cases, it has not been possible to provide estimates since not enough detail has been provided.

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COST OF NDP PROMISES AS OF SEPTEMBER 1

Panel 1 in the Table below provides cost estimates for most of the NDP election promises as of September 1.

 

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COST OF CONSERVATIVE PROMISES AS OF SEPTEMBER 1

The Conservatives have announced few new initiatives since the election campaign started.  The reason is that most oof their platform was already included in the April 21budget. Most importantly, this included the enhanced UCCB and income splitting for families with children 18 years of age and younger. There was also a committment to infrastructure spending beginning in the outer years.

Stephen Harper announced two new initiatives in the first two days of the 2015 election campaign.

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A SURPLUS OF $5 BILLION: WHAT IS GOING ON?

The federal government posted a surplus of $5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2015-16, up $4.6 billion from the same period in 2014-15. The Conservatives were quick to use this as proof that they were on track to post a surplus in 2015-16, despite a warning by the Department of Finance that early fiscal results are not reliable in forecasting results for the year as a whole.

 

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