Budget 2012 committed the government to cutting spending by $5.2 billion annually. This followed months of uncertainty as to how big the cut would be- as low as $4 billion, as high as $8 billion. It was a nice compromise.

This commitment followed a decision in the 2010 budget to cut defense spending, capping the International Assistance Envelope at $5 billion and freezing the operating budgets of all government departments for two years.

In both budgets, the government stated that the savings would be found primarily through greater "efficiencies".

On April 24th, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released its latest Economic and Fiscal Forecast. As usual, it generated some controversy, dismissed by the Government over the impact of the job losses resulting from the proposed spending reductions, but embraced by the Opposition, for acknowledging the job losses. The PBO is forecasting that the government is on track to eliminate the deficit by 2015-16.This note examines the PBO's deficit forecast, how it has changed since November 2011Update and some of the issues underlying it.

The February 2012 Fiscal Monitor reports a surplus of $1.6 billion for February 2012, compared to a deficit of $0.6 billion in February 2011.


This paper looks at the economic and fiscal projections presented in Budget 2012. Based on our assessment of the proposed expenditure "savings", we believe that the Government will not balance the budget in 2015-16, and may have difficulty in achieving a balanced budget by 2016-17. The fiscal impact of some the expenditure savings are overstated and unless programs and services are cut, it will not be able to achieve the targeted savings through "efficiency" measures.