PBO'S ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK - THE MINISTER OF FINANCE SHOULD BE HAPPY

Posted: 03/05/2013, by Scott Clark & Peter Devries

The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) latest economic and fiscal outlook is more optimistic than the forecast in Mr. Flaherty’s 2013 Budget. PBO is forecasting lower deficits and higher surpluses throughout the 2012-13 to 2017-18 period.  In 2015-16, the year in which the Conservatives promised a balanced budget or better, PBO is forecasting a surplus of $3.7 billion, compared to the Budget 2013 forecast of only $0.8 billion. However, PBO’s forecast is based on a number of assumptions, which if not realized, would put their forecast at risk.

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THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO SHRUG OFF $3.1 BILLION

Posted: 01/05/2013, by Scott Clark & Peter Devries

The major issue, in the Auditor General’s Spring Report, which captured media and public attention, was the revelation that only $9.8 billion of the $12.9 billion earmarked for the Public Security and Anti-Terrorism Initiative (PSAT) could be accounted for, leaving an unexplained shortfall of $3.1 billion.

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FISCAL MONITOR FOR FEBRUARY 2013

Posted: 26/04/2013, by Scott Clark & Peter Devries

For the period April to February of fiscal year 2012-13, the federal government posted a deficit of $11.8 billion, down $0.8 billion from the deficit of $12.6 billion reported in the same period in 2011-12.

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RECONCILIATION OF SPENDING BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES AND THE BUDGET

Posted: 31/03/2013, by Scott Clark & Peter Devries

Ask the President of the Treasury Board about whether spending will be going up or down in 2013-14 and he’ll tell you that it’s going down.  Ask the Minister of Finance and he’ll say it’s going up.  Who is right and why the conflicting answers?  The Minister of Finance will likely be more accurate than the President of the Treasury Board. But why the confusion and why can’t Canadians and Parliamentarians get a straight answer?

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SPENDING RESTRAINT BY "STEALTH" IN BUDGET 2013

Posted: 24/03/2013, by Scott Clark & Peter Devries

The single largest “restraint” measure “not” announced in Budget 2013 was an increase in the “lapse”, which resulted in an estimated “savings” of between $2 to $3 billion (1)  per year.  This, along with an overly rosy economic forecast and increased enforcement and compliance by the Canada Revenue Agency were the main factors underlying the government’s forecast of a balanced budget in 2015-16.

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